Yesterday on the Andrew Marr show, the new very slick and articulate Bank of England boss Mark Carney, went on the record to declare that the housing market in the UK was firmly in the recovery mode . . .except for Northern Ireland. This prompted a response last night from our Finance Minister and local economists today that Mt Carney must have been looking at the wrong data. In short and for the lay man the data in NI for the past 12 months has shown that there has been a very marginal increase in house prices in the region of 2/3%. Not a great deal but after 6 years of declining house prices of up to 50%, most people would take that. So technically I would agree with the Norn Irn viewpoint that maybe on this occasion Mr Carney dropped the ball ever so slightly.
I am a chartered surveyor myself and worked as a commercial property consultant for over ten years. I worked with many incredible people in the property market and got a real good grounding in business. I cut my teeth in the noughties, when it seemed like every other person in Belfast was driving a Range Rover, suited and booted to the nines, and running around socialising at Down Royal. It seems a long time ago now, but was only in 2005/2006, so not that long ago really. How times have changed. The Bentleys have gone, helicopters decommissioned, even the all year round tans have gone by a lot of the ones who had a great few years, Another noticeable occurrence of the last few years has been the fact that the estate agents have been very quiet. Many estate agents have went out of business, sold their business, have had problems within their business, etc etc, such a far cry form only a few years earlier when they were investing in their businesses and making a lot of money.
In the past six months though we have seen the return of the agent. The slicker ones have their teeth whitened again, new suits, dazzling shiny shoes and beautiful cars to boot. They are happy to tell you the market is back, houses are flying out the door and in fact there are now bidding wars according to one agent on radio today. Bidding wars - I think I remember what they where?? This is all fine but I feel at times this type of reporting can be counter productive and too salesy!!
Anyhow, what I would say is we all need a sense of perspective in this country and in Republic of Ireland when talking about any kind of housing market recovery. Yes there is now finally activity in the housing market, yes people are now putting their properties on the market and yes things are starting to move, however I wouldn't be clicking the champagne glasses anytime soon celebrating a full blown recovery in the housing market. What I would say in my professional opinion, there will continue to be a serious correction of house prices up to 2016 as the banks maintain their policy of clearing the decks regarding property.
Let me explain :: I have a friend and for these purposes his name will be John. John has a young family and bought a lovely house in Bangor around 2007 for £400,000. He spent another £75,000 doing the house up before he would move in. He has a mortgage of £425,000 today and its just went from a fixed rate payment of £1000 a month to variable rate of £1700.00 per month. Johns hit financial trouble in the last two years as he was a professional and he lost his job. He is now doing some contract work but every month is a struggle. He stopped paying his mortgage last year and had to place his property on the market. Johns house is agreed at £200,000. If the sale goes through John will still owe the bank £225,000. Not a nice situation, and John is weighing up his options.
My point here is there are 1000's of Johns across the country who are part of the negative equity club. Overwhelmed by debt and struggling to fill the oil tank and provide for their families every month. Most people like John belong to the coping classes, and many of them are professionals like teachers, doctors, dentists, vets etc etc.... all living month to month doing the 4 o clock walk a few nights a week for good measure, stressed our of their wits - not good at all!!
The big issue in N Ireland is DEBT, and sad fact is our our local government have no idea how big a problem this debt issue is for households. They have no data on this unlike the Republic of Ireland and I find this incredible. How are you going to fix a problem if you don't even know what it is... playschool economics by Stormont at the highest level.
Its great that finally we have some movement in the housing market. Mostly in the sub £150,000 band, as houses over this price are still hard to shift. If credit is to be come more readily available in the months a years ahead (hopefully) we should see this trend in the market continue.
Yes there is definitely a mood change in the market, and as we are nearly through the first quarter of 2014, lets hope this continues. However I have always said that we will not have any form of consistent recovery, to our banks start getting involved in lending again. This could be some time yet.
A housing market recovery... just a little yes, but do me a favour, please don't be mentioning it to John!!
Conor Devine MRICS
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