Wednesday 30th October 2013
A dictionary definition would state that Propaganda is a form of communication aimed towards influencing the attitude of the community toward some cause or position by presenting only one side of an argument. For Propaganda to work it is usually repeated and dispersed over a wide variety of media in order to create the chosen result in audience attitudes.
Once again we are being told that demand for property is
outstripping supply in Dublin and that prices are being pushed higher and
higher. Official figures are showing that the rise in prices is as much as 12%
this calendar year. It also outlines it’s the fastest rate of growth since 2007
and is entirely driven by the Dublin market, however there appears to be evidence
that it is creeping outside the capital.A dictionary definition would state that Propaganda is a form of communication aimed towards influencing the attitude of the community toward some cause or position by presenting only one side of an argument. For Propaganda to work it is usually repeated and dispersed over a wide variety of media in order to create the chosen result in audience attitudes.
As much as anybody else I would be looking for signs of
improvement in the market but I would also be acutely aware of how easy it is
to manipulate a market. For five years, every market commentator has been
looking for the smallest sign of a 'green shoot' of economic recovery. As some
of the statistics now appear to be confirming. Any housing market is largely based on
sentiment. Sentiment, if powerfully driven by media is largely irrational. As
soon as you make decisions based on sentiment, you need to be fully aware of
the facts.
Propaganda often presents facts selectively to encourage a
particular synthesis, or uses loaded messages to produce an emotional rather
than rational response to the information presented.
The way that these latest set of statistics from the Central
Statistics Office (CSO) have been presented do exactly that. It’s important to
remember that
·
The divergence between Dublin and the rest of
the country suggests a market supported by a lack of supply – this will very
quickly not be the case
·
An influx of cash buyers currently into Dublin
supported by tax exemptions and above average yields is currently compensating
for weak mortgage lending.
·
There are well over 100,000 distressed mortgages
in this country which need to be dealt with. This figure is rising… fast!
We all want to believe that the market is changing. Heaven
knows I spent three years at a desk in Singapore, hoping that each change of
direction wasn’t the false dawn that the last one was. Unfortunately those
Eureka moments are very few and far between. Talk of property prices increasing
is providing some people with the hope that there is a light at the end of the
tunnel, an end to their problems. Talk of solutions that revolve around
interest only periods or split mortgages that rely almost entirely on a revival
in the property market are not solutions at all – they only delay the
inevitable. Similar to putting a
sticking plaster on the Niagara Falls on many occasions.
The more worrying point is that we are seeing people in our
debt advisory business who are now thinking that their investment portfolio of
houses is going to come back to where it was – very simply, this is not going
to happen.
Any attempt to boost confidence in the property market, any
attempt to sway sentiment with limited observance of the facts, any such propaganda
should be treated with the utmost care.
Movement in the property market in Ireland, absolutely and must be
welcomed. Putting the kettle on for prices
to recover to where they were…. Well I think most would accept this is more of
an illusion than reality.
Nick Leeson
No comments:
Post a Comment